NFL Picks Week 12

*These picks are subject to change Sunday morning at around 12:30 ET, in time to confirm the latest injuries and make your picks.

For NFL picks I usually will not bet over/under unless there is something I really like, and I will usually use the spread for picking teams unless there is a game I really like or an underdog I think has a great chance to win outright. Here are this weeks picks, again I will go over all the games but highlight games I really like. I will try and pick at least one underdog each week.

1:00 ET Games
*Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans +3.5
— Here is definitely a game to have fun with. I like the Texans a lot in this game. The Colts, yes undefeated, haven't impressed me as much as an 11-0 team should. It was only 3 weeks ago that the Colts at home narrowly defeated a Texans 20-17. If you look at the Colts schedule six of their eleven wins have been decided by 4 points or less. Yes they are good at closing out games but their luck runs out this week against a talented and underappreciated Texans team. It might not show by their record but this Texan team is for real.
*Upset of the week: Texans straight up over Colts

Cleveland Browns +13.5 @ Cincinatti Bengals
— The Browns are coming off their best offensive performance of the year, whereas the Bengals are coming off a dismal loss to the offensively anemic Raiders. I would steer away from this game if you want to roll the dice I like the Browns to cover 13.5 and I like over 39 points. I do like this game in a 7 point teaser however, if you wanted to take the Browns to 20.5 and get the over at 32.
Browns to cover and the over.

*Miami Dolphins -3.5 @ Buffalo Bills
— Just to set the record, I hate the fish and can't stand their wildcat offense. If you look at your schedule there should be no surprise that they have lost a ton of games by small margins at the end of the game. If you can't throw the ball how can you drive the ball with 2 minutes left? Anyways, despite my rant I like the Fins in this one. Buffalo has been struggling especially defending the run (2nd to last only behind the Bucs in rushing yds/game at 165 yds a game on the ground), and this game is on a neutral sight, Toronto, so I think the wildcat lives one more week.
Miami by a touchdown.

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles -9
— Washington's strong pass defense and Philadelphia's inability to run the ball I think should keep this one close. In most cases I would stay away from that 9 point spread but if you can change the line with a teaser I like either team. Philly +2 or Wash +16. I also like this game to be low scoring so take the under with the points as well. Under 47.5.
I only like this game in a teaser. Eagles -2 or Redskins + 16, should be close but Skins won't win.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +11.5 @ Atlanta Falcons
—This game has a lot riding on Michael Turner's injury, if he plays expect an update tomorrow morning but as it stands right now Tampa Bay is playing better football with Josh Freeman at Quarterback. Although Snelling fills in nicely for Turner he isn't the same back, I still expect him to get 100yds and a TD against the worst run D in the league but that won't be enough to blow out the Bucs.
Falcons win, Bucs cover.

*Carolina Panthers @ New York Jets -3
—Take he Jets to cover the 3 points. They are the better team here and are at home. Sanchez has struggled mightily but the Jets D and a heavy dose of Thomas Jones will be able to knock off the Panthers. Also expect Darrelle Revis to shut down Steve Smith and the Panthers oen dimensional passing attack.
J-E-T-S. Jets, Jets, Jets.

Seattle Seahawks -3.5 @ St. Louis Rams
—Seattle covers on the road, Steven Jackson is either out or playing hurt, not to mention Bulger is out indefinably. Not to mention Seattle is better team anyways, I like the Seahawks a lot in this game.
Seahawks to cover.

4 ET Games
Arizona Cardinals @ Tennesee Titans -2.5
—Although both teams are playing well I like the Titans at home. Expect a close game but there are chances of rain tomorrow in Nashville and I think this only helps Chris Johnson and the Titans ground attack. Jeff Fisher has this team playing tough football, look for them to extend their winning streak to 5 games.
Titans to cover.

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings -10.5
—A couple question marks here for the Vikings, RB Adrian Peterson (illness/ankle) and CB Antoine Winfield (foot). I expect both of these guys to play and I expect Minnesota to continue their dominance at home. Expect the Bears to come out throwing which means big plays for Minny's defense against Cutler. Although I don't particularly like the 10.5 line for a division rival take the spread at your own risk. Still like Vikes to win of course.
Vikings at home to win.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 @ San Francisco 49ers
— I like the Jags in this one, they have better pass D, surprisingly, and better all around offense, surprisingly. The 9ers have made strides this season but they are still a quarterback away from being a serious contender. This one should be close and low scoring, I like under 41.5 as well, but Jags get the W.
Take the Jags straight up in an upset and take the under at 41.5.

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers -13.5
—San Diego is rolling right now and I don't expect them to slow down at home against the division rival chiefs. SD has enough momentum to win this one by a couple touchdowns.
SD to cover.

Sunday Night Game
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
Ben Roethlisberger is out which means Dennis Dixon is starting, naturally I like Ravens but I'll wait until the line settles before making this pick.