NFL Picks Week 12
*These picks are subject to change Sunday morning at around 12:30 ET, in time to confirm the latest injuries and make your picks.
For NFL picks I usually will not bet over/under unless there is something I really like, and I will usually use the spread for picking teams unless there is a game I really like or an underdog I think has a great chance to win outright. Here are this weeks picks, again I will go over all the games but highlight games I really like. I will try and pick at least one underdog each week.
1:00 ET Games
*Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans +3.5
— Here is definitely a game to have fun with. I like the Texans a lot in this game. The Colts, yes undefeated, haven't impressed me as much as an 11-0 team should. It was only 3 weeks ago that the Colts at home narrowly defeated a Texans 20-17. If you look at the Colts schedule six of their eleven wins have been decided by 4 points or less. Yes they are good at closing out games but their luck runs out this week against a talented and underappreciated Texans team. It might not show by their record but this Texan team is for real.
*Upset of the week: Texans straight up over Colts
Cleveland Browns +13.5 @ Cincinatti Bengals
— The Browns are coming off their best offensive performance of the year, whereas the Bengals are coming off a dismal loss to the offensively anemic Raiders. I would steer away from this game if you want to roll the dice I like the Browns to cover 13.5 and I like over 39 points. I do like this game in a 7 point teaser however, if you wanted to take the Browns to 20.5 and get the over at 32.
Browns to cover and the over.
*Miami Dolphins -3.5 @ Buffalo Bills
— Just to set the record, I hate the fish and can't stand their wildcat offense. If you look at your schedule there should be no surprise that they have lost a ton of games by small margins at the end of the game. If you can't throw the ball how can you drive the ball with 2 minutes left? Anyways, despite my rant I like the Fins in this one. Buffalo has been struggling especially defending the run (2nd to last only behind the Bucs in rushing yds/game at 165 yds a game on the ground), and this game is on a neutral sight, Toronto, so I think the wildcat lives one more week.
Miami by a touchdown.
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles -9
— Washington's strong pass defense and Philadelphia's inability to run the ball I think should keep this one close. In most cases I would stay away from that 9 point spread but if you can change the line with a teaser I like either team. Philly +2 or Wash +16. I also like this game to be low scoring so take the under with the points as well. Under 47.5.
I only like this game in a teaser. Eagles -2 or Redskins + 16, should be close but Skins won't win.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +11.5 @ Atlanta Falcons
—This game has a lot riding on Michael Turner's injury, if he plays expect an update tomorrow morning but as it stands right now Tampa Bay is playing better football with Josh Freeman at Quarterback. Although Snelling fills in nicely for Turner he isn't the same back, I still expect him to get 100yds and a TD against the worst run D in the league but that won't be enough to blow out the Bucs.
Falcons win, Bucs cover.
*Carolina Panthers @ New York Jets -3
—Take he Jets to cover the 3 points. They are the better team here and are at home. Sanchez has struggled mightily but the Jets D and a heavy dose of Thomas Jones will be able to knock off the Panthers. Also expect Darrelle Revis to shut down Steve Smith and the Panthers oen dimensional passing attack.
J-E-T-S. Jets, Jets, Jets.
Seattle Seahawks -3.5 @ St. Louis Rams
—Seattle covers on the road, Steven Jackson is either out or playing hurt, not to mention Bulger is out indefinably. Not to mention Seattle is better team anyways, I like the Seahawks a lot in this game.
Seahawks to cover.
4 ET Games
Arizona Cardinals @ Tennesee Titans -2.5
—Although both teams are playing well I like the Titans at home. Expect a close game but there are chances of rain tomorrow in Nashville and I think this only helps Chris Johnson and the Titans ground attack. Jeff Fisher has this team playing tough football, look for them to extend their winning streak to 5 games.
Titans to cover.
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings -10.5
—A couple question marks here for the Vikings, RB Adrian Peterson (illness/ankle) and CB Antoine Winfield (foot). I expect both of these guys to play and I expect Minnesota to continue their dominance at home. Expect the Bears to come out throwing which means big plays for Minny's defense against Cutler. Although I don't particularly like the 10.5 line for a division rival take the spread at your own risk. Still like Vikes to win of course.
Vikings at home to win.
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 @ San Francisco 49ers
— I like the Jags in this one, they have better pass D, surprisingly, and better all around offense, surprisingly. The 9ers have made strides this season but they are still a quarterback away from being a serious contender. This one should be close and low scoring, I like under 41.5 as well, but Jags get the W.
Take the Jags straight up in an upset and take the under at 41.5.
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers -13.5
—San Diego is rolling right now and I don't expect them to slow down at home against the division rival chiefs. SD has enough momentum to win this one by a couple touchdowns.
SD to cover.
Sunday Night Game
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
Ben Roethlisberger is out which means Dennis Dixon is starting, naturally I like Ravens but I'll wait until the line settles before making this pick.
Saturday, November 28, 2009
Daily Pics
Welcome to Sports Boggle, a blog dedicated to sports gobble. I will be sharing daily picks for MLB, NFL, NHL and NBA.
To be upfront about it I know the most about MLB, second would be NFL, third NHL and although I used to know a lot about the NBA the direction the league has gone the past years has made me lose interest. That being said with my past knowledge I'll still pick winners for all of these sports, take these picks as you wish.
For each day I will pick all the games with scores. For teams I really like to win I will star the game, and for games where I really like the over/under I will ^ the game. Also I may advise to stay away from a game in my write-ups. Good luck.
Anyways here we go, day 1, November 28th, 2009.
NHL
<>Some changes in last nights picks due to goalie changes...
*^Islanders 2 @ Devils 3 — Both teams played last night, Biron should get the nod in net for the Isle tonight but as good as he and the islanders have played recently I think Brodeur follows up his brilliant performance last night with another W at home. Take the under.
Devils got the W but missed with the under thanks to 3 late goals by NJ in the last 7 minutes. 1-1
*^Flyers 4 @ Thrashers 2 — Boucher gets the nod in net today after Emery lost last night. Both teams are coming off losses from the night before and although Philly is struggling I think they rebound against an inferior Thrasher team with backup Johan Hedberg in net. This one should go over.
Missed badly here, Flyers badly outshot the Thrashers but sometimes the puck doesn't go your way. 1-3
^Carolina 1 @ Buffalo 3 — Miller should start in night for the second time in as many days against backup Michael Leighton of the Hurricanes. Both teams inabilty to create offense should lead to a low scoring game but ultimately Miller's dominance gets Buff the W. Under.
Like the NYI NJ game Buffalo got the win but erupted offensively to push this one over. 2-4
Senators 2 @ Bruins 3 — Despite Ottawas strong play as of late, as well as the fact that Boston is playing on back to back nights I think the return of Tim Thomas will elevate the bruins over the Senators in a close one. Stay low, take the under.
Bruins get the W but this one just goes over. 3-5
Capitals 6 @ Canadiens 2 — The Canadiens haven't been that good this year and Price has been inconsistent. Despite Washington's injuries look for them to light the scoreboard as Price will inevitably lay another egg. I would advise taking the over in this game, especially if you can get it at 5.5. Over.
Hit both here, Caps get the W and the game goes over. 5-5
Flames 2 @ Blue Jackets 4 — Kipprusoff gets the night off after a spectacular game last night, Curtis McElhinney get the nod in net for the Flames instead. With Kiprusoff out this games a tough one to pick, steer clear here if you can but I think Mason gets the W for the rested Jackets in a close one. Over.
A close game, went over, but Calgary wins in shootout. 6-6
^Rangers 4 @ Penguins 5 — Should be a fun one to watch, Fleury will be back in net for the Pens after Johnson lost last night, Lundqvist should sit as Stephen Valiquette gets the nod for the Range. O yeah, take the over either way.
As we expected, penguins win and this game goes way over. 8-6
Red Wings 4 @ Blues 1 — Although both netminders have been struggling in Detroit their defense hasn't been giving up many shots so it's only a matter of time before this talented club starts winning games again. I think the wings are tired of out-shooting their opponents only to lose. Howard gets the W, not Osgood, for the Wings in this one. Stick with the under.
Lightning 4 @ Stars 2 — Mike Smith takes the net again and has been playing better of late. I expect the lightning to upset the Stars at home here. Tough play though. Alex Auld fills in for Marty Turco in this one for Dallas. Take the thunder with the lightning and bet the over.
*^Oilers 0 @ Canucks 3 — Canucks are coming off a days rest, Oilers are coming off an shootout loss from the night before. Luongo should get his first shutout of the year here as the Canucks begin to heat up. Under.
To be upfront about it I know the most about MLB, second would be NFL, third NHL and although I used to know a lot about the NBA the direction the league has gone the past years has made me lose interest. That being said with my past knowledge I'll still pick winners for all of these sports, take these picks as you wish.
For each day I will pick all the games with scores. For teams I really like to win I will star the game, and for games where I really like the over/under I will ^ the game. Also I may advise to stay away from a game in my write-ups. Good luck.
Anyways here we go, day 1, November 28th, 2009.
NHL
<>Some changes in last nights picks due to goalie changes...
*^Islanders 2 @ Devils 3 — Both teams played last night, Biron should get the nod in net for the Isle tonight but as good as he and the islanders have played recently I think Brodeur follows up his brilliant performance last night with another W at home. Take the under.
Devils got the W but missed with the under thanks to 3 late goals by NJ in the last 7 minutes. 1-1
*^Flyers 4 @ Thrashers 2 — Boucher gets the nod in net today after Emery lost last night. Both teams are coming off losses from the night before and although Philly is struggling I think they rebound against an inferior Thrasher team with backup Johan Hedberg in net. This one should go over.
Missed badly here, Flyers badly outshot the Thrashers but sometimes the puck doesn't go your way. 1-3
^Carolina 1 @ Buffalo 3 — Miller should start in night for the second time in as many days against backup Michael Leighton of the Hurricanes. Both teams inabilty to create offense should lead to a low scoring game but ultimately Miller's dominance gets Buff the W. Under.
Like the NYI NJ game Buffalo got the win but erupted offensively to push this one over. 2-4
Senators 2 @ Bruins 3 — Despite Ottawas strong play as of late, as well as the fact that Boston is playing on back to back nights I think the return of Tim Thomas will elevate the bruins over the Senators in a close one. Stay low, take the under.
Bruins get the W but this one just goes over. 3-5
Capitals 6 @ Canadiens 2 — The Canadiens haven't been that good this year and Price has been inconsistent. Despite Washington's injuries look for them to light the scoreboard as Price will inevitably lay another egg. I would advise taking the over in this game, especially if you can get it at 5.5. Over.
Hit both here, Caps get the W and the game goes over. 5-5
Flames 2 @ Blue Jackets 4 — Kipprusoff gets the night off after a spectacular game last night, Curtis McElhinney get the nod in net for the Flames instead. With Kiprusoff out this games a tough one to pick, steer clear here if you can but I think Mason gets the W for the rested Jackets in a close one. Over.
A close game, went over, but Calgary wins in shootout. 6-6
^Rangers 4 @ Penguins 5 — Should be a fun one to watch, Fleury will be back in net for the Pens after Johnson lost last night, Lundqvist should sit as Stephen Valiquette gets the nod for the Range. O yeah, take the over either way.
As we expected, penguins win and this game goes way over. 8-6
Red Wings 4 @ Blues 1 — Although both netminders have been struggling in Detroit their defense hasn't been giving up many shots so it's only a matter of time before this talented club starts winning games again. I think the wings are tired of out-shooting their opponents only to lose. Howard gets the W, not Osgood, for the Wings in this one. Stick with the under.
Red Wings win, game goes over. 9-7
Panthers 3 @ Predators 4 — Scott Clemmensen should start for the Panthers and Dan Ellis should get the nod for the Preds. Bad goal-tending will make up for the fact both of these teams played last night and I think the Preds take this one at home although its not an easy pick. Take the over if you dare.
Preds win, game stays under. 10-8
Panthers 3 @ Predators 4 — Scott Clemmensen should start for the Panthers and Dan Ellis should get the nod for the Preds. Bad goal-tending will make up for the fact both of these teams played last night and I think the Preds take this one at home although its not an easy pick. Take the over if you dare.
Preds win, game stays under. 10-8
Lightning 4 @ Stars 2 — Mike Smith takes the net again and has been playing better of late. I expect the lightning to upset the Stars at home here. Tough play though. Alex Auld fills in for Marty Turco in this one for Dallas. Take the thunder with the lightning and bet the over.
Game goes to OT, Stars win, game goes over. 11-9
^Wild 1 @ Avalanche 3 — Doesn't it seem like these two teams just played? That's because they did, yesterday. Anderson has been struggling but he'll stay in net against Josh Harding of the Wild. I think Anderson wins this one but its a tough call. Stick with the under though.
Game stays under, Wild win in SO. 12-10
^Wild 1 @ Avalanche 3 — Doesn't it seem like these two teams just played? That's because they did, yesterday. Anderson has been struggling but he'll stay in net against Josh Harding of the Wild. I think Anderson wins this one but its a tough call. Stick with the under though.
Game stays under, Wild win in SO. 12-10
*^Oilers 0 @ Canucks 3 — Canucks are coming off a days rest, Oilers are coming off an shootout loss from the night before. Luongo should get his first shutout of the year here as the Canucks begin to heat up. Under.
Nucks win but explode offensively and game goes over. 13-11
*^Blackhawks 4 @ Kings 2 — Kings are banged up but the Blackhawks are coming off a bad loss against the ducks from the night before. Good news for the hawks is the only had to travel half an hour up the 5 to get their revenge on a struggling Kings team. Expect Niemi to get the nod in net and the W here for the Blackhawks. Over.
*^Blackhawks 4 @ Kings 2 — Kings are banged up but the Blackhawks are coming off a bad loss against the ducks from the night before. Good news for the hawks is the only had to travel half an hour up the 5 to get their revenge on a struggling Kings team. Expect Niemi to get the nod in net and the W here for the Blackhawks. Over.
Miss miss. 13-13
Theme of the day, take the under, almost all of these teams played yesterday and had to travel last night.
NBA
Going to go over these quickly...
Charlotte < Washington — Washington played last night but Charlotte is 0-7 on the road, look for them to fall to 0-8.
Missed badly. 0-1
Dallas < Cleveland — Dallas played last night / Cleveland's at home.
Hit here. 1-1
Orlando > Milwaukee — Milwaukee played on the road last night and despite their strong home record Lando is the better team. Take the Magi's.
Theme of the day, take the under, almost all of these teams played yesterday and had to travel last night.
NBA
Going to go over these quickly...
Charlotte < Washington — Washington played last night but Charlotte is 0-7 on the road, look for them to fall to 0-8.
Missed badly. 0-1
Dallas < Cleveland — Dallas played last night / Cleveland's at home.
Hit here. 1-1
Orlando > Milwaukee — Milwaukee played on the road last night and despite their strong home record Lando is the better team. Take the Magi's.
Orlando wins a close one. 2-1
Portland > Utah — Portland played last night and lost to the Grizzlies at home, look for them to seek vengeance on the Jazz tonight.
Portland > Utah — Portland played last night and lost to the Grizzlies at home, look for them to seek vengeance on the Jazz tonight.
Portland lost. 2-2
Lakers > Warriors — Better team here.
Lakers > Warriors — Better team here.
Lakers cover. 3-2
Dodgers 2010 Outlook
Despite the heartbreaking NLCS loss to the Phillies (for the sceond straight year!) and the dark McCourt divorce cloud hanging over the Dodgers this off-season at the end of the day we still have one of the youngest and most talented teams in the NL and should contend for the pennant for years to come. Let's put all else aside for the moment and look at what the 2010 season will look like for the Dodgers.
Below is an outlook on the 2010 Dodgers. It shows current players under contract, players from last years team who will most likely be moving on, as well as new rookies that have just been added to the 40-Man roster. In this outlook as you may notice I am not predicting any Free Agent signings, instead, I am showing the team as if the season were to start today. I don't like to project Free Agents signings based on the fact I may become too emotionally attached to a player I want, only to see him sign with a division rival. To clarify the 40-man roster on the chart below, players in black font are locks to be on the opening day 25-man team barring some unforseen trade or injury, players in brown are who I would predict to be on the team if the season started today (granted many of the players may not be on the team due to free agent signings between now and opening day), and lastly, players in blue most likely will start the season in one of the Dodgers minor league affiliates.
Also on the left side of the chart there is last years players, combined with our 40-Man roster today. Anyone in red ink with a purple background is a free agent who can sign anywhere they please. Those players in yellow are players that are arbitration eligible, meaning they will most likely be on the team next spring, but their contracts have yet to be determined, in an attempt to come up with an accurate payroll I have guessed how much they will make next season but these numbers are far from finalized. Lastly, players with a green background are on the team and will either be on the Dodgers, or in our minor league system.
Before we exam this chart let's keep in mind that the Dodgers are very unlikely to be that aggressive in free agent signing this winter, for a host of reasons. First, many of our young talented players; Ethier, Kemp, Loney, Martin, Broxton, Sherrill, Billingsley and others are all arbitration eligible and will be demanding lots of money of the next few years. Second, the divorce between the McCourts, who each controlled 50 percent of the team, means it is highly unlikely that they will be willing to spend money until the smoke settles and terms of the divorce are worked out. Lastly, Manny's contract is stretched out over a few years, so even when he is gone in the 2011 season we will still have some money committed to him. With those facts in mind let us be happy that most of our roster is still intact and lets hope the McCourts don't dismantle the team like we saw with the Padres this past year.
Right now our payroll is right around $96,000,000 and I don't expect it to surpass $110,000,000. To give you an idea in 2008 we opened the season with a $119,000,000 payroll, in 2009 we opened the season with a $100,000,000 and ended the season with a payroll over 106,000,000. So with those numbers in mind I see us being between 100 and 120 million dollar payroll, but most likely closer to the first number.
Looking at this chart, the most glaring needs are starting pitching, a left handed bat off the bench, and some insurance at second base. Starting pitching down the stretch last season and into the playoffs was clearly the Dodgers Achilles heal, and the situation only looks worse headed into the 2010 season. Right now I have Elbert and McDonald penciled in, although both are young and inexperienced. I expect Elbert to open the season in the Minors and McDonald to remain in the bullpen but with lack of better options they would be our 4th and 5th starters if the season opened today. I fully expect Elbert to be in the rotation by the end of the season, maybe even as soon as May, but the Dodgers most certainly need insurance behind him.
First off, consider Wolf gone already, he has demanded a ton of interest on the open market already and I expect to see him get somewhere in the neighborhood of 12/Mil a year over 4 years. Although it is bittersweet, I think this is for the best, and the money should be used elsewhere. If you are skeptical of letting our best pitcher walk reference Derek Lowe 2009 Free Agency. Lowe was the Dodgers most consistent pitcher the prior year but he commanded too much money so we let him go and he ended up flopping in Atlanta. To give you an idea Derek Lowe led the entire league in hits allowed last year. You would be surprised what playing in front of the Dodgers defense, as well as in Chavez Ravine can do for pitchers numbers so as good as Wolf was last year I think he will flop with whoever his highest bidder is this off-season.
That being said, I would like to see the Dodgers try and bring back Padilla at maybe 2/yrs 12 Mil. Maybe that is a stretch money wise in this slim market of Starting Pitchers, but anything more than that I think is too much for a guy like Padilla who is surrounded in question marks, despite his strong play at the end of last season. I highly expect the Dodgers to bring in at least one more established starters, if not two, and looking at the Free Agent here are some names I think could be realistic possibilities, and no John lackey is not one of them.
Rich Harden, Joel Pineiro, Carl Pavano, Braden Looper, Erik Bedard, Justin Duchsherer. My favorite of the list is Rich Harden, a guy I believe has some of the nastiest stuff in the league when he is healthy. I have always been a big Harden fan so I am biased to say the least but I think he will come at a bargain, maybe 2 years just under 20 million. A lot of teams will skeptical to sign Harden because of the laundry list of injuries but this helps the Dodgers get a solid starter or a couple years before all of our arbitration eligible players need to be wrapped up long term. The problem with Harden, and most of these guys, is again the injury risk, something that the Dodgers don't have the depth or the money to be able to put up with right now. One of our biggest problems last year was starting pitchers not going deep enough into games, and that is something that Harden won't do, which is why I expect him to end up somewhere like Seattle, and not in the Dodger blue.
Two guys on that list that have proven to be a bit more durable are Joel Pineiro and Braden Looper. Pinerio was a huge surprise starting for the Cards last year and although he had himself a fantastic season I think he pitched a bit over his head and I expect a decline in production from him next year. Although I think the Dodgers will give him a look I think that he might be too pricey, estimated at about 3 years 20 million, just based on last years stats alone. That leaves us with Braden Looper, a guy who has started over 30 games a season the past 3 years since converting from a reliever. Although he won't strike many guys out and his number last year in Milwaukee are ugly, 5.2 ERA, 1.5 Whip, 290 BAA, while only striking out a batter every other inning I think he could bounce back with the Dodgers and be a real bargain. It was only 2 years ago he posted a tidy, 4.16 ERA over 200 innings and if we could bring him in at 1 year 4/mil i think he could be next years Joel Pineiro.
There has also been rumors of a Doc Halladay trade in which we give up Billingsley and more. I am thinking maybe Billingsley and either Loney, Martin, or some combination of prospects maybe Elbert and DeJesus. I think Halladay would be open to pitching for the Dodgers and would wave his no trade clause but I still think this deal is a long shot due to lack of talent in the minor leagues, as well as a tight off-season budget.
Now let's move onto second base. Right now Hudson is as good as gone and DeWitt has the job if the season started to day, however, despite DeWitt's success with the big league club don't be surprised to see the Dodgers find an insurance guy. DeWitt is still young and has shown inconsistency in the minor leagues so it would be smart for the Dodgers to go after someone like Belliard, who they almost certainly will target given that his price-tag should be pretty cheap (1/yr 3 mil). I think a Belliard/DeWitt platoon could be a very likely scenario for the Dodgers at the start of next year with Torre ultimately riding the hot hand after the first month or so. Another guy the Dodgers may consider would be Placido Palanco (est. 2 yrs/13 mil) who has a great glove and always hits for a high average. I still think the Dodgers will stay cheap here though and stick with DeWitt and Belliard.
Lastly, let us take a quick look at our bench. Although I noted left handed bench bat as a hole for the Dodgers I don't think it is a pressing need that needs to be addressed right away. This is a spot that can be filled by a spring training invite, ie. Doug Mientkiewicz last year, a guy I could actually see the Dodgers bringing back. Not only for his bat, but his glove at either corner inflied spot and for his world series experience. Torre likes to carry experience on the bench (last year, Ausmus 40, Loretta 38, Mientkiewicz 35, Castro 37, Thome 39) and I think he will try to do that to the best of his ability this year, although it will be harder with less money to spend. I think Hu will finally stay with the big league club and act as a defensive replacement, Ellis will spell Martin, although not regularly, and I would love to see Loretta back as a right handed bat off the bench (his timely hit off the bench in game 2 of the NLCS is something I will never forget as I was sitting in right field at the time). And of course, barring a trade, Pierre will be our 4th outfielder, someone who Torre will try and get in the lineup as much as possible.
That is all for now, hope everyone had a wonderful thanksgiving and I will keep you updated with notes from around the league as well as Dodger new as soon as I hear it. (check back soon for a Florida Marlins State of the Franchise)
PS - click on excel document to get it to open up bigger in a new browser.
Below is an outlook on the 2010 Dodgers. It shows current players under contract, players from last years team who will most likely be moving on, as well as new rookies that have just been added to the 40-Man roster. In this outlook as you may notice I am not predicting any Free Agent signings, instead, I am showing the team as if the season were to start today. I don't like to project Free Agents signings based on the fact I may become too emotionally attached to a player I want, only to see him sign with a division rival. To clarify the 40-man roster on the chart below, players in black font are locks to be on the opening day 25-man team barring some unforseen trade or injury, players in brown are who I would predict to be on the team if the season started today (granted many of the players may not be on the team due to free agent signings between now and opening day), and lastly, players in blue most likely will start the season in one of the Dodgers minor league affiliates.
Also on the left side of the chart there is last years players, combined with our 40-Man roster today. Anyone in red ink with a purple background is a free agent who can sign anywhere they please. Those players in yellow are players that are arbitration eligible, meaning they will most likely be on the team next spring, but their contracts have yet to be determined, in an attempt to come up with an accurate payroll I have guessed how much they will make next season but these numbers are far from finalized. Lastly, players with a green background are on the team and will either be on the Dodgers, or in our minor league system.
Before we exam this chart let's keep in mind that the Dodgers are very unlikely to be that aggressive in free agent signing this winter, for a host of reasons. First, many of our young talented players; Ethier, Kemp, Loney, Martin, Broxton, Sherrill, Billingsley and others are all arbitration eligible and will be demanding lots of money of the next few years. Second, the divorce between the McCourts, who each controlled 50 percent of the team, means it is highly unlikely that they will be willing to spend money until the smoke settles and terms of the divorce are worked out. Lastly, Manny's contract is stretched out over a few years, so even when he is gone in the 2011 season we will still have some money committed to him. With those facts in mind let us be happy that most of our roster is still intact and lets hope the McCourts don't dismantle the team like we saw with the Padres this past year.
Right now our payroll is right around $96,000,000 and I don't expect it to surpass $110,000,000. To give you an idea in 2008 we opened the season with a $119,000,000 payroll, in 2009 we opened the season with a $100,000,000 and ended the season with a payroll over 106,000,000. So with those numbers in mind I see us being between 100 and 120 million dollar payroll, but most likely closer to the first number.
Looking at this chart, the most glaring needs are starting pitching, a left handed bat off the bench, and some insurance at second base. Starting pitching down the stretch last season and into the playoffs was clearly the Dodgers Achilles heal, and the situation only looks worse headed into the 2010 season. Right now I have Elbert and McDonald penciled in, although both are young and inexperienced. I expect Elbert to open the season in the Minors and McDonald to remain in the bullpen but with lack of better options they would be our 4th and 5th starters if the season opened today. I fully expect Elbert to be in the rotation by the end of the season, maybe even as soon as May, but the Dodgers most certainly need insurance behind him.
First off, consider Wolf gone already, he has demanded a ton of interest on the open market already and I expect to see him get somewhere in the neighborhood of 12/Mil a year over 4 years. Although it is bittersweet, I think this is for the best, and the money should be used elsewhere. If you are skeptical of letting our best pitcher walk reference Derek Lowe 2009 Free Agency. Lowe was the Dodgers most consistent pitcher the prior year but he commanded too much money so we let him go and he ended up flopping in Atlanta. To give you an idea Derek Lowe led the entire league in hits allowed last year. You would be surprised what playing in front of the Dodgers defense, as well as in Chavez Ravine can do for pitchers numbers so as good as Wolf was last year I think he will flop with whoever his highest bidder is this off-season.
That being said, I would like to see the Dodgers try and bring back Padilla at maybe 2/yrs 12 Mil. Maybe that is a stretch money wise in this slim market of Starting Pitchers, but anything more than that I think is too much for a guy like Padilla who is surrounded in question marks, despite his strong play at the end of last season. I highly expect the Dodgers to bring in at least one more established starters, if not two, and looking at the Free Agent here are some names I think could be realistic possibilities, and no John lackey is not one of them.
Rich Harden, Joel Pineiro, Carl Pavano, Braden Looper, Erik Bedard, Justin Duchsherer. My favorite of the list is Rich Harden, a guy I believe has some of the nastiest stuff in the league when he is healthy. I have always been a big Harden fan so I am biased to say the least but I think he will come at a bargain, maybe 2 years just under 20 million. A lot of teams will skeptical to sign Harden because of the laundry list of injuries but this helps the Dodgers get a solid starter or a couple years before all of our arbitration eligible players need to be wrapped up long term. The problem with Harden, and most of these guys, is again the injury risk, something that the Dodgers don't have the depth or the money to be able to put up with right now. One of our biggest problems last year was starting pitchers not going deep enough into games, and that is something that Harden won't do, which is why I expect him to end up somewhere like Seattle, and not in the Dodger blue.
Two guys on that list that have proven to be a bit more durable are Joel Pineiro and Braden Looper. Pinerio was a huge surprise starting for the Cards last year and although he had himself a fantastic season I think he pitched a bit over his head and I expect a decline in production from him next year. Although I think the Dodgers will give him a look I think that he might be too pricey, estimated at about 3 years 20 million, just based on last years stats alone. That leaves us with Braden Looper, a guy who has started over 30 games a season the past 3 years since converting from a reliever. Although he won't strike many guys out and his number last year in Milwaukee are ugly, 5.2 ERA, 1.5 Whip, 290 BAA, while only striking out a batter every other inning I think he could bounce back with the Dodgers and be a real bargain. It was only 2 years ago he posted a tidy, 4.16 ERA over 200 innings and if we could bring him in at 1 year 4/mil i think he could be next years Joel Pineiro.
There has also been rumors of a Doc Halladay trade in which we give up Billingsley and more. I am thinking maybe Billingsley and either Loney, Martin, or some combination of prospects maybe Elbert and DeJesus. I think Halladay would be open to pitching for the Dodgers and would wave his no trade clause but I still think this deal is a long shot due to lack of talent in the minor leagues, as well as a tight off-season budget.
Now let's move onto second base. Right now Hudson is as good as gone and DeWitt has the job if the season started to day, however, despite DeWitt's success with the big league club don't be surprised to see the Dodgers find an insurance guy. DeWitt is still young and has shown inconsistency in the minor leagues so it would be smart for the Dodgers to go after someone like Belliard, who they almost certainly will target given that his price-tag should be pretty cheap (1/yr 3 mil). I think a Belliard/DeWitt platoon could be a very likely scenario for the Dodgers at the start of next year with Torre ultimately riding the hot hand after the first month or so. Another guy the Dodgers may consider would be Placido Palanco (est. 2 yrs/13 mil) who has a great glove and always hits for a high average. I still think the Dodgers will stay cheap here though and stick with DeWitt and Belliard.
Lastly, let us take a quick look at our bench. Although I noted left handed bench bat as a hole for the Dodgers I don't think it is a pressing need that needs to be addressed right away. This is a spot that can be filled by a spring training invite, ie. Doug Mientkiewicz last year, a guy I could actually see the Dodgers bringing back. Not only for his bat, but his glove at either corner inflied spot and for his world series experience. Torre likes to carry experience on the bench (last year, Ausmus 40, Loretta 38, Mientkiewicz 35, Castro 37, Thome 39) and I think he will try to do that to the best of his ability this year, although it will be harder with less money to spend. I think Hu will finally stay with the big league club and act as a defensive replacement, Ellis will spell Martin, although not regularly, and I would love to see Loretta back as a right handed bat off the bench (his timely hit off the bench in game 2 of the NLCS is something I will never forget as I was sitting in right field at the time). And of course, barring a trade, Pierre will be our 4th outfielder, someone who Torre will try and get in the lineup as much as possible.
That is all for now, hope everyone had a wonderful thanksgiving and I will keep you updated with notes from around the league as well as Dodger new as soon as I hear it. (check back soon for a Florida Marlins State of the Franchise)
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